These are uniquely challenging times when it comes to agricultural markets, says Mike Jubinville.
Jubinville, a senior market analyst with MarketsFarms, provided some of his insight to those attending Dauphin Agricultural Society’s Farm Outlook 2023, Mar. 9.
Cheaper choices, the weather and the needs of China as it emerges from it’s “draconian” COVID restrictions are just a few of the things producers will have to keep in mind when marketing their crops this year, he said.
“I do find it’s a really unusual time right now where central bank policy around the world is creating a scenario of high inflation and we’re combating it with rising interest rates and other economic influences,” Jubinville said. “But this has all happened at the same time where actually the supply of our grains and oil seeds are relatively tight.”
We should also expect to see a lower Canadian dollar value in the coming year as we head into a recession of unknown depth or duration, he said.
Still influencing markets, he added, is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
“Obviously this conflict with Russia is ongoing and it continues to grind along and I suspect it probably gets worse before it gets better,” Jubinville said. “This is creating an anxiety in the world for food users globally recognizing how significant this Black Sea region, which is responsible for 30 per cent of all the wheat exports in the world transversing through Black Sea, is and there is an anxiety of securing food supply.”
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