Normally, Jon Driedger finds grain markets straight forward and, at times, a bit boring.

But the representative of LeftField Commodity Research told area producers gathered in Aspen Lodge at the Parkland Recreation Complex for Farm Outlook 2026 in this crop year, things are anything, but normal.

“That’s maybe a bit flippant because markets are always hard, right? They’re always unpredictable. But certainly there’s just an element of utter chaos that has become a part of grain markets and trying to get a sense of what’s going on,” Driedger said, adding when he last attended the event, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia had just taken place.

“Now we got war going on in Iran and it seems like it’s utter chaos, which doesn’t make our job any easier.”

Despite that chaos Driedger shared some of his thoughts about the markets and how to navigate them.

“I’m not going to sit here and pretend that I have any kind of perfect crystal ball. Because I think in this kind of environment, no one does,” he said, adding LeftField Commodity Research is not aligned with any major agricultural company and is free to “call it as we see it.”

While overall, he is cautiously optimistic about prices, Driedger warned producers the “external

shocks” everyone has been dealing with result in wide ranging outcomes, good and bad. 

“Think about the potential for extremes even if grain market fundamentals are pretty normal,” he said.

Driedger opened his analysis with a look at U.S corn and soybean markets as they are a bellweather for Canadian crop markets.

In both cases, large crops were grown last season and the carry out of both commodities will be higher than normal.

“They grew a lot, we’re going to use a lot, but there’s a cushion going into this next season. We got a comfortable carry out, it’s not crushingly burdensome, but it just has a bit of a dampening effect,” Driedger said, adding the U.S. is expected to plant additional acres of each crop this season, while South America is on track for a record soybean crop this year.

On the good news side, demand is on the rise particularly in the biofuel industry, Driedger said, which can help keep prices on the higher side of the ranges traditionally seen.

“That’s kind of the setup you have, decent production, decent supplies, but also pretty good demand,” he said.

For the full story, read this week’s edition of the Dauphin Herald.